I’ve been following the number of worldwide corona virus cases at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. It serves as a clue to when markets recover. When the curve starts to flatten, governments will relax the restrictions and the economy can recover.
However, the number of active cases is rising exponentially. It is going straight up, with no sign of decelerating. Countries with huge populations like Africa, Indonesia, and India are just starting.
We are probably still some weeks away from any flattening of cases in Europe and USA. Worryingly, the cases can easily go back up again with imported cases. That’s why China and Singapore set up new restrictions even though we flattened the curve.
I don’t see a V or U shape recovery anymore. Even if cases go down, governments will still be very cautious. Every sensible country will close their borders for a while. Travel and the tourism industry won’t be coming back anytime soon. Many businesses are going to close permanently, and some jobs are going to be lost for good.
I wish I had better news, but it looks increasingly like an L shaped “recovery”, where things are going to be depressed for a long time.
I feel like I have been writing a lot about corona virus, and there are other topics that I have been intending to write about such as proper insurance. But this topic is really dominating and affecting everything. There are huge human tragedies going on that we can’t see, like people dying alone in the ICU and not being able to see their loved ones. Indian workers are walking hundreds of kilometres just to get home. Just tremendous suffering out there.
I reflect that I’m lucky to be at home with food in the fridge and all my family members are safe and healthy. We are shielded from the worse of it for now, but it’s going to get worse before it gets better.