I watched the debate between Trump and Biden this morning… I must say that I hope Biden wins now. He wasn’t as slow as I thought he would be, and he just behaved a lot more respectfully. The way Trump was would have gotten him kicked out of any secondary school debate.

Initially I was for Trump because I felt the media was very unfair to him, and he was a positive for my stocks. I was appalled by figures such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who would have ruined the country with their policies (not to mention my US tech stocks). Luckily Biden won the democratic primary, and while he will raise taxes, I think my holdings can take it.

The last few months have been absolutely disgraceful. 200,000 dead, no new stimulus, no vaccine, nothing. The way the US govt handled the pandemic was a disaster. Literally anyone else would be better as president.

These next few months will be wild one for the markets. The uncertainty will also last long after Nov 3. Buckle up, buckaroo.

But I think 2021 will be a good year for the markets. Can’t be much worse than 2020 right? A lot of uncertainty would be removed, vaccine should be out, and low interest rates will continue to be low. There is a lot of repressed liquidity, so once the election is settled, most would be buying back in.

Another primary worry was that the previous 10 year bull market was getting low in the tooth. That ended quickly and decisively, and I’m learning towards it being another great decade for stocks.

3 thoughts on “Thoughts on the Presidential Debate

  1. I’ve been commenting since mid-2017 that we’re in the middle of a 20-year secular bull market, similar to the ones from 1950s-to-1960s and 1980s-to-1990s.

    That doesn’t mean there won’t be recessions or bear markets or crashes during this period of 2010s-to-2020s. It means that any crash or bear market can be recovered within a couple of years, and broad stock indices going upwards over 10-20 years.

    Contrast to secular bear markets like the 1930s, 1970s, 2000s where broad markets can take over 10+ years just to break even.

    I don’t know why some people are so bearish on Biden. He’s basically a moderate & his policies will be similar to Obama’s (as well as most previous US presidents in the last 70 yrs).

    Even before Trump, many large US companies were paying less than 10% corporate tax — that’s even lower than Singapore. Many of the FAANG+M even paid close to zero income taxes.

    At most Biden will raise corporate taxes back to pre-Trump, and increase personal taxes on the top 1%-5%. Companies, billionaires & centi-millionaires can more than live with it. They certainly won’t move their HQs & families to tax havens.

    What companies & rich people can’t stand is uncertainty & erratic-ness.

    1. Yeah I believe you’re right. It’s hard to predict for the next 10 years, but next year looks to be a decent bet. With so much liquidity, I can’t imagine where else assets can go but up.

      Agree, the market will do just fine with Biden. He may even end the senseless trade war. He’s signalling a return to normalcy, which will be well-received by investors and companies. I think the democrats got a bad rep on business with leaders such as Sanders and Warren, and Biden got lumped in. But Trump showed that he’s no steward of the economy, and I think many will be glad with the change.

  2. Hi FI35,

    In the 2016 election, I followed almost every of Trump’s debate within Republicans and then Democrat battle with Ms Clinton. More substance and lots of laughters!

    This one is definitely cynical laughters!

    How the world has changed so rapidly in the last 10-20 years.

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